What is the Track Judge® Report?

 

Track Judge® weighs each race based on

• Running Style (Pace and Speed) ,
• Experience
• Breeding, and
• Human factors (Trainer and Jockey)

Track Judge® handicaps by combining Running Style, Pace and Speed with Experience, Breeding and the human factors – Trainer and Jockey.

• T-J applies a statistical analysis to the Running Style – Position (RS – POS) approach developed by Jim Cramer. RS – POS projects the horse’s position at the quarter mile based on his prior races early speed and running style — Early (need to lead), Presser (mid pack) or Sustained (back of the pack).
• Once we have the quarter mile position projected, we project the horse’s likely position at the half mile and finish. The finish position is derived from the Projected Speed Rating (PSR).
• The PSR is the single most important handicapping factor. The top rated PSR horse wins about 32% of the time. The Running Style, Position, Half Ranking and PSR are used to generate the probabilities for win, second, or third place finish – projections very important to exacta and trifecta bettors.
• A key Track Judge® number is the Efficiency Index. This number measures the horses’ performance at today’s distance, on turf, and on wet dirt tracks. The number runs from 0 (no in the money finishes) to 100 (all wins). This simple number is calculated for the horse as well the sire’s progeny, and when ranked in today’s field, is remarkably predictive of a horse’s performance today.
• T-J considers the Trainer’s win% and the Trainer-Jockey combination win% for all horses and adjusts the oddsline where appropriate.
• T-J has a carefully constructed oddsline, comprised of running style, position, half mile and PSR rankings. It is then modified by the trainer, breeding, post position and experience factors appropriate for each day’s distance and surface.

The Track Judge® report combines all of this information in a text and graphic format.

Text —
It includes saddle cloth, post position, name, medications and equipment changes, days since last race, trainer, jockey, morning line and Track Judge® odds, RS-POS Ranks, probabilities for Win-Place-Show, PSR and last race speed, Maximum speed at the distance, on turf, and on wet dirt tracks, Horse Efficiency Indices, and breeding data.

Graphics— Performance Space Reports

The Performance Space Report™ is unique to Track Judge®. It is a depiction of the early pace, overall speed and running style for each horse in the race. With a single graph, the handicapper can grasp the pace scenario and identify the most likely early, middle and late contenders. Early pace battles, deep closers and mid pace horses become obvious.

Statistics show that horses getting a clear and uncontested early lead control the race and have a better than expected chance to win. The first question in handicapping any race is to identify this early pace scenario. Once established, the question becomes whether the early lead horse has sufficient energy to maintain his advantage and if he will be challenged early in the race. It is simply easier to see this in a graph than derive it from tabular data.

What the graph shows

Suppose we take the last three starts; plus

1. the best pace rating in the last 10 starts, and

2. the race with the best speed rating in the last 10 as well. These data points give us “recency” as well as the horse’s best performance. This is our horse’s “envelope.”

Next we construct an x-y scatter-plot graph. On left from top to bottom (y axis) is a quarter-mile pace rating. On the left-right or X axis, is the speed. We now connect the dots, forming an area we call the “Performance Space” for this horse, #8. This is his envelope.

 

Next, using symbols and colors, we indicate the running style of the horse. This horse is an E! type signified by bold red dots. E! horses must have an early lead to win.

 

 

 

We begin adding more horses. Our next is another E! horse, #4. We can immediately see a pace battle shaping up. A third E! horse, #2 has similar pace and speed numbers occupying the same space.

 

Our fourth horse, #7 has a different running style. He is a “presser”, who can win if he’s a length from the leader at the half mile call. Presser horses are shown in blue. Our fifth, #1, is an early presser. Early Presser horses have a red dot-dash pattern on the graph. Our final horse, #5, is “sustained”, a horse that runs no more than seven horses back at any time. Sustained horses are plotted as a black line. This is our field.

We now add a par box showing the pace and speed numbers of the middle 50% of winners on this track for this condition. A vertical line shows the best last race speed rating of any horse in the field. A diagonal line shows the average ratio of early pace to final speed for winners at the condition.

 

 

Finally, we convert the pace and speed to time (across the top) of the graph. What we see is the race scenario. In this graph, we have three E! horses with similar speeds battling it out, but none dominates the other. On the graph, their energy is expended above the par box, suggesting they will go too fast in the early going. Horse #5’s numbers run right through the par box, and that makes him the prime contender.

Here’s what happened:

 

Notice that #4 and #8 are noses apart in the early race, but #5 our “sustained” entry, wins paying $48.80